Four of the most important and most hardline Sunni countries in the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia in the lead and the likes of Egypt, the UAE and Bahrain following, are cutting ties with Qatar, quoting its increasing support for Islamist movements as the main reason, with closer ties to the Shia power Iran seen as equally important by international affairs experts.
The United States quickly reacted to the move, with Rex Tillerson, the American Secretary of State, claiming that the fight against ISIS will not be affected while also urging all sides to tackle their differences via diplomatic links.
The new united Sunni block says that it is blocking airspace, closing ports and airports and is giving Qatar citizens no more than two months to returning to their country, with further measures set to be announced at a later date.
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and Egypt are trying to make sure that Iranian influence does not expand in the region, especially now that the Shia power is heavily involved in Iraq, with military advisers supporting troops that are fighting ISIS, Syria, where it aims to prop up the regime, and in Lebanon, where it is working closely with Hezbollah.
Qatar, a small country that has solid gas reserves (mainly in a field that it shares with Iran), will be affected by the restrictions because of its reliance on food imports and because the airspace closures might affect the daily operations of Qatar Airlines.
The Gulf monarchy is characterized by high per capita income, which stands in stark contrast with the economy’s overall reliance on migrant workers, and has been accused of human rights abuses even as it seeks to grow its international profile by hosting the 2022 FIFA World Cup.
Many analysts are seeing the move as preparation for a wider Saudi Arabia led move against Iran, supported by the United States and joined by a number of other Middle East countries. The immediate aim is to get other middle level powers to side with one of the major groups and to show those who do are not linked with the Sunni block the price they will have to pay if they work with Iran.
There are a number of possible scenarios for the short and medium term:
- Saudi Arabia and its allies will continue to pressure other countries to work against Iran and will probably seek to improve their position in Yemen while also boosting their presence in Syria and in Irak, mainly via soft power means. Neither of them is too keen to launch military action, especially given the limited progress Saudi Arabia and allies have made in Yemen and the complicated situation in other countries where Iranian influence is strong.
- Qatar seeks to strike back and uses both diplomatic clout and its resources to boost rebel groups it is supporting, launching attacks against Saudi Arabia interests in Yemen, Egypt, Bahrain, Syria and Irak. Iran will back such efforts but it is unlikely that Shia power will abandon its current strategy, which involves avoiding major direct military engagements.
- Both the Saudi Arabia led block and the Iranian one escalate and come to direct blows, perhaps over airspace access or shipping, with flare-ups also possible in Yemen or Syria. It’s unlikely that the two sides will be interested in sustaining a prolonged classic military conflict given the diplomatic pressure they will be from the international community and the high potential economic cost of any major war.
Battlelines already exist in the Middle East, in Irak, Yemen and Syria, but despite the clear divergent interests of the various countries the confrontation will not escalate in any major way.
The diplomatic move that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt made against Qatar is significant because of its potential economic impact and it might lead to tit-for-tat responses that will affect the overall prosperity of the region and might force many of the involved actors to look inward to deal with both social and economic issues.